Bitcoin is noticeably declining in price, even despite its periodic spikes, it has not reached its record maximum level. Bullish and bearish trends are emerging for many factors, although the position of the currency is somewhere in between.
CryptoBullet was the first to pay attention to how Bitcoin repeats the reverse “head and shoulders” (IH & S) model, after which there was a serious drop to $ 3,100 in December 2018. Therefore, there is a chance that this is a harbinger of bitcoin falling to the same level this year.
This behavior of the currency is associated with a decline in prices in 2018 and 2021. For example, when developing the IH & S model, Bitcoin in 2018 reached two highs in April and May, reaching a price of more than 10 thousand dollars, after which it fell to 6 thousand dollars in July of the same year.
In 2021, the Bitcoin price behaved very similar to the IH &S model . High highs were reached by the coin in April at the level of 65 thousand dollars and in November at the level of 69 thousand dollars. At the beginning of February 2022, the price fell below the level of 33 thousand dollars, repeating the IH & S model of 2018.
The IH & S model is a bullish reversal pattern, so BTC should soon reach the level of 50 thousand dollars, and maybe even higher. According to Lark Davis’ forecast, if the current trend continues, Bitcoin will reach the $60,000 mark. But the growth of the currency to 50 or even 60 thousand dollars is not enough to even out the situation. If the fractal of 2018 repeats this year, then BTC may fall to the level of 25 thousand dollars. However, in 2018, the currency after IH & S reached a high figure of 10 thousand dollars.
As a result, Bitcoin was able to restore the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; red wave), but soon went lower. The price continued to fall, reaching the lowest figures of $3,000 in December 2018 in the 200-week EMA (blue wave).
If we assume that the same fractal will be applied to the current position of the currency, then Bitcoin may stop above the 50-week EMA, remain in the zone of 50-60 thousand dollars. But later it should fall to the bottom of the red wave, and then get to the 200-week EMA, which is now 25 thousand dollars
These assumptions were also made on February 14 by an independent market expert, Ari Rudd, on Twitter.